The planet benefits from Wuhan Virus Pandemic
There's an unlikely beneficiary of coronavirus: The planet
It seems the lockdown had an unintended benefit -- blue skies.
The
average number of "good quality air days" increased 21.5% in February,
compared to the same period last year, according to China's Ministry of
Ecology and Environment.
And Hubei wasn't alone.
Satellite images released by NASA and
the European Space Agency show a dramatic reduction in nitrogen dioxide
emissions -- those released by vehicles, power plants and industrial
facilities -- in major Chinese cities between January and February. The
visible cloud of toxic gas hanging over industrial powerhouses almost
disappeared.
"This
is the first time I have seen such a dramatic drop-off over such a wide
area for a specific event," says Fei Liu, an air quality researcher at
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "I am not surprised because many
cities nationwide have taken measures to minimize the spread of the
virus."
A similar pattern has emerged with carbon dioxide (CO2) -- released by burning fossil fuels such as coal.
From
February 3 to March 1, CO2 emissions were down by at least 25% because
of the measures to contain the coronavirus, according to the Center for
Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), an air pollution research
organization.
As the world's
biggest polluter, China contributes 30% of the world's CO2 emissions
annually, so the impact of this kind of drop is huge, even over a short
period. CREA estimates it is equivalent to 200 million tons of carbon
dioxide -- more than half the entire annual emissions output of the UK.
"As
a measure that took place effectively overnight, this is more dramatic
than anything else that I've seen in terms of the impact on emissions,"
said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA.
But
while lockdown measures designed to stem the spread of the virus have
caused a momentary uptick in China's pollution levels, experts warn that
when the county starts to reboot its economy the toxic chemicals could up to higher levels than before the epidemic hit.
Coal consumption falls
A
fall in oil and steel production, and a 70% reduction in domestic
flights, contributed to the fall in emissions, according to the CREA.
But the biggest driver was the sharp decline in China's coal usage.
China
is the world's biggest producer and consumer of coal, using this
resource for 59% of its energy in 2018. As well as running power plants
and other heavy industries, coal is also the sole heat source for
millions of homes in the vast rural areas of the country.
The
country's major coal-fired power stations saw a 36% drop in consumption
from February 3 to March 1 compared to the same period last year,
according to CREA analysis of WIND data service statistics.
"The
largest consumers of coal -- coal-fired power plants -- have been
affected a lot because electricity demand is down," said Myllyvirta. "I
think it's clear that this effect will continue for the next weeks and
months, because there has also been a major impact on the demand side of
the economy."
In 2017, President
Xi Jinping promised to make combating pollution one of China's "three
battles," and the following year the Ministry of Ecology and Environment
was created.
The policies have
resulted in a significant impact, with overall pollution levels 10%
lower across Chinese cities between 2017 and 2018, according to a report
released last year by Greenpeace and AirVisual.
Climate activists say the crisis could provide a window to ramp up these promised reforms.
"We
would very much advocate for China to foster this opportunity to
transform its economy, to break apart from the old," said Li Shuo, a
senior climate policy adviser for Greenpeace East Asia.
"Revenge pollution"
The
concern, Li said, is that once the coronavirus threat has passed, China
will be solely focused on restarting its economy, which was already
hurting in the wake of the US-China trade war. That could come at the
expense of the environment.
"There
might be a round of economic stimulus which would inject cheap credits
to heavy industries in China, and as a result of that we might see
increasing pollutants and also carbon emissions in the second half of
this year," Li added.
This bounce-back effect -- which can sometimes reverse any overall drop in emissions -- is something Li calls "revenge pollution." And in China it has precedent.
In
2009, the Chinese government launched a giant $586 billion stimulus
package in response to the global financial crisis -- the majority of
which went to large-scale infrastructure projects.
But the resulting explosion in pollution in the following years -- particularly in the "airpocalypse"
winter of 2012-2013 -- led to a public outcry which ushered in the
Chinese government's first national air pollution action plan in
September 2013.
President Xi has
made clear that workers and factories need to ramp up activity as soon
as possible if the country is to avoid a steeper economic downturn.
Myllyvirta hopes China has learned lessons from the past.
"It
was really those previous episodes where it boiled over," says
Myllyvirta, who also warns of a public backlash if the skies turn gray
again.
"The reduction in air
pollution has been very clear so if the pollution does come back,
because of stimulus measures, because of heavy industry going into
overdrive to make up for lost time, there could be a counter reaction."
Hong Kong pollution falls
In
neighboring Hong Kong, air quality has also improved since the city
entered partial shutdown mode to combat the spread of the coronavirus.
Key
air pollutants dropped by nearly a third from January to February,
according to data from Hong Kong University School of Public Health,
which was analyzed by environmental organization Clean Air Network.
Monitoring
of stations in the busiest areas of Hong Kong, including Central,
Causeway Bay and Mongkok, revealed that the fine particle pollutant
PM2.5 decreased by 32%, while the larger particle pollutant PM10 fell by
up to 29%, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was reduced by up to 22%.
Pollution
in the city is mostly caused by motor vehicles, marine vessels, and
power plants in Hong Kong and around the Pearl River Delta, the
government says.
The declines in
harmful pollutants came in direct correlation with the Hong Kong
government's introduction of measures including working from home
procedures, the closure of some public facilities, and a partial closure
of the border with China. A drop in pollution in mainland China during
this period also resulted in less regional smog from the industrial
powerhouse cities in the southern province of Guangdong.
"There
are lots of people who work from home, and that has reduced the traffic
and the traffic congestion," said Patrick Fung, chairman of the Clean
Air Network. Hong Kong's measures were nowhere near as drastic as those
in mainland China, but there was still a significant impact.
Fung
has been campaigning about the long-term health impact of the air
pollution in Hong Kong, which he says causes on average 1,500 premature
deaths per year in the city.
"For
the last decade, Hong Kong's air pollution has been double the World
Health Organization's recommended safe level," Fung says. "Especially at
the roadside, where a lot of pedestrians and commuters are exposed to
that kind of toxic and carcinogenic air pollutants."
Hong
Kong's government did introduce a raft of green policies in its recent
budget, including a roadmap on cleaner public transport vehicles. Fung
says the announcement was a good "first step," but much more needs to be
done.
Now, Fung believes this
brief period of cleaner air should send a message for people to push for
longer-term changes. "If we want the children, the elderly, who could
live healthily in Hong Kong, then we should think how to make business
as usual change," Fung says.
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