Covid 19 is 200,000 times worse than Flu
People are not panicking because doctors are completely wrong in
giving fatality figures. Under estimating the fatality rates by
thousands.
The figure in S Korea, which I got is that 0.1% for young people below 30 years old. The data isn't accurate because only one death. Not sure if he smokes or not, but I assume he doesn't.
The fatality for seasonal flu is 0.1%, but this is average, where most deaths, I use 90% figure first until I get the full data, occur, so young people's fatality is only 0.01%.
The figure in S Korea, which I got is that 0.1% for young people below 30 years old. The data isn't accurate because only one death. Not sure if he smokes or not, but I assume he doesn't.
The fatality for seasonal flu is 0.1%, but this is average, where most deaths, I use 90% figure first until I get the full data, occur, so young people's fatality is only 0.01%.
Ah, you may be happy that it is only 10 times, not 100 times, but this is not the whole story.
That 0.01% is not for all young people, but for Covid19, it is for all, in just a month, if no precautions are taken. Even with half efforts, such as leaky, frequently broken self-quarantine, like in Malaysia, it is only delayed to 3 months.
The figure should be adjusted to 40 times, not 10, based on the Chinese data of 0.4% fatality rate for those in the 10-40 year ages.
What is the percentage of people getting flu in 3 months?, 1 in thousand? Why so rare? Because flu spreads slowly in summer. Maximum rate only in winter.
Why the spread so low, because many people got vaccinated, or already immune because of the slow spread of the flu. Not so for Covid19.
Not really 1000, but 200.
Still, 40 times 200, is still 8000.
Still not the end of the story. If young people can get to hospital, treated with anti-viral, or aided with ventilators, their survival rate could be 100 times more than no hospital also.
How do we estimate this? It could be 1000 times worse, if not hospitalised. For those above 65, it is infinity, because it is a certainty that they will die, but only 19% of all ages need to be hospitalised, so fatality is no longer 0.4%, based on the Chinese data.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm shows that:
Overall, 31% of cases, 45% of hospitalizations, 53% of ICU admissions, and 80% of deaths associated with COVID-19 were among adults aged ≥65 years
So we can estimate that 50% of the hospitalisations which is 10% are people in the 10-40 years old, who would die if they are not hospitalised, making the fatality rate to be 10% instead of 0.4%, so fatality rate is 10% divided by 0.01%, which is 1000 times.
Even slowing down to three months, hospitals will be overwhelmed in just a month. Look at Italy. With 99% young people also cannot be treated, you may as well use 100 times worse than common flu. 10,000 times 100 is 1 million times.
Even if it were 8,000, it is still 800,000, close to a million times worse than Flu.
This is a million times more than common flu deaths, even with half hearted lockdown that we are doing.
Actually 1000 times 200, 200,000.
S Korea and Singapore cannot control their cases with half hearted tracing, unlike China.
S Korea tighten its border control with apps tracing, but as Hong Kong finds out, many people still break the self quarantine because they still think it is like common flu. Only China is different.
So based on the half measures in place in nations outside China, no hope to control the infection and the destruction to the economy as a result of it.
If only we had panicked earlier. I thought people understand the simple maths, or at least take the safe approach, but it is too late now. We just have to endure.
That 0.01% is not for all young people, but for Covid19, it is for all, in just a month, if no precautions are taken. Even with half efforts, such as leaky, frequently broken self-quarantine, like in Malaysia, it is only delayed to 3 months.
The figure should be adjusted to 40 times, not 10, based on the Chinese data of 0.4% fatality rate for those in the 10-40 year ages.
What is the percentage of people getting flu in 3 months?, 1 in thousand? Why so rare? Because flu spreads slowly in summer. Maximum rate only in winter.
Why the spread so low, because many people got vaccinated, or already immune because of the slow spread of the flu. Not so for Covid19.
Not really 1000, but 200.
Still, 40 times 200, is still 8000.
Still not the end of the story. If young people can get to hospital, treated with anti-viral, or aided with ventilators, their survival rate could be 100 times more than no hospital also.
How do we estimate this? It could be 1000 times worse, if not hospitalised. For those above 65, it is infinity, because it is a certainty that they will die, but only 19% of all ages need to be hospitalised, so fatality is no longer 0.4%, based on the Chinese data.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm shows that:
Overall, 31% of cases, 45% of hospitalizations, 53% of ICU admissions, and 80% of deaths associated with COVID-19 were among adults aged ≥65 years
So we can estimate that 50% of the hospitalisations which is 10% are people in the 10-40 years old, who would die if they are not hospitalised, making the fatality rate to be 10% instead of 0.4%, so fatality rate is 10% divided by 0.01%, which is 1000 times.
Even slowing down to three months, hospitals will be overwhelmed in just a month. Look at Italy. With 99% young people also cannot be treated, you may as well use 100 times worse than common flu. 10,000 times 100 is 1 million times.
Even if it were 8,000, it is still 800,000, close to a million times worse than Flu.
This is a million times more than common flu deaths, even with half hearted lockdown that we are doing.
Actually 1000 times 200, 200,000.
S Korea and Singapore cannot control their cases with half hearted tracing, unlike China.
S Korea tighten its border control with apps tracing, but as Hong Kong finds out, many people still break the self quarantine because they still think it is like common flu. Only China is different.
So based on the half measures in place in nations outside China, no hope to control the infection and the destruction to the economy as a result of it.
If only we had panicked earlier. I thought people understand the simple maths, or at least take the safe approach, but it is too late now. We just have to endure.
Comments
Post a Comment